Key Takeaways
- Mesothelioma is rare — approximately 3,000 cases per year in the United States. The American Cancer Society notes that most people exposed to asbestos, even in large amounts, do not develop mesothelioma.
- Up to 80% of all mesothelioma cases result from primary (direct) asbestos exposure. Other risk factors include secondary exposure (from a family member’s contaminated clothing), radiation exposure, and the inherited BAP1 gene mutation.
- The odds of diagnosis vary by type: pleural (lungs) accounts for 75–80% of cases, peritoneal (abdomen) about 15%, and pericardial (heart) and testicular each less than 1%.
- The five-year survival rate is approximately 12% overall because the disease is usually diagnosed at a late stage. When caught early, the five-year survival rate increases to 24%. Stage 3 projects roughly 16%, and stage 4 drops to approximately 7%.
- Mesothelioma symptoms can take 30 to 40 years to appear after exposure, making early detection extremely difficult — which is why awareness of exposure history is so critical.
If you have been exposed to asbestos, you might be wondering: what are the odds of getting mesothelioma? Mesothelioma is a rare type of cancer occurring in vital organs and has historically been acknowledged to be linked to asbestos exposure. There are roughly 3,000 cases per year in the United States, which has since decreased from the 20th century. It is also important to mention that “most people exposed to asbestos, even in large amounts, do not get mesothelioma” as described by the American Cancer Society. The likelihood of being diagnosed with a specific type of mesothelioma is found below.
Organ – Type of Mesothelioma – Symptoms – The Odds of Diagnosis
Lung Pleural Shortness of Breath, Persistent Cough 75-80%
Abdomen Peritoneal Constipation, Nausea, Abdomen Pain 15%
Heart Pericardial Chest Pain, Weight loss Less than 1%
Testicles Testicular Cysts, Increase in scrotum Less than 1%
The Common Cause of Mesothelioma
Asbestos is a naturally occurring mineral with heat-resistant properties and it was a valuable insulation material during the Industrial Revolution. The types are listed below.
Type – Qualities
Actinolite Sharp, needle-like
Amosite Brown, needle-like
Anthophyllite Brown, yellow, least common
Crocidolite Very hazardous, blue
Tremolite Green, needle-like
While this was the case, it was additionally discovered in 1942 that this mineral was also likely to cause severe health issues like mesothelioma. While companies were aware of this, they continued to use the material for insulating hot water pipes, steam pipes, paint, and tiles. The mineral was later banned in March 2024, given the number of individuals who were negatively impacted by the mineral. The number of individuals who have died from asbestos exposure from 1999-2017 is roughly “236,981 to 277,654 Americans” (Nation, 2017). It is important to mention that asbestos is only harmful when it is damaged or undergoes some form of demolition. When this occurs, the fibers are released into the air and are inhaled.
Flip Side of The Coin
To answer this question, it is important to look at the flip side of this coin, how many mesothelioma patients are exposed to asbestos? Penn Medicine claims that “Up to 80 percent of all mesothelioma cases result from primary exposure”. Primary exposure is defined as working directly with the asbestos or inhaling it directly. Other methods of exposure however include secondary exposure, radiation exposure, or having the BAP1 gene. The BAP1 gene is inherited and is recognized as tumor predisposition syndrome. Unfortunately, individuals with this gene are “at risk of developing malignant mesothelioma” (BAP1 Tumor Predisposition Syndrome: MedlinePlus Genetics, 2015). These different factors will impact your odds of getting mesothelioma.
Occupations at Risk
While there is no set limit of exposure that guarantees a mesothelioma diagnosis, there are occupations that are at higher risk of developing the disease. Historically, men have been more likely to develop the disease given the delay of women in the workforce, which gives them more opportunity for primary exposure, but “Non‐occupational exposure occurs predominantly in women” as reported by the National Library of Medicine. Some of the occupations warned by the CDC include:
· Auto mechanics
· Building inspectors
· Carpenters
· Demolition workers
· Drywallers
· Electricians
· Ironworkers
Odds of Survival
Unfortunately, due to the long latency period that is associated with mesothelioma, symptoms will not show up for 30-40 years, making it extremely difficult to detect exposure. Therefore, when diagnosis occurs there is a short survival period that follows. While it is possible to survive, the trajectory of a five-year life span following its diagnosis is “12% because it is usually diagnosed at a late stage” (Mesothelioma – Statistics, 2012). However, if it is discovered in the earlier stages, the likelihood of survival for a five-year survival period increases to 24%. You might be wondering about the in-between of these stages and what is recognized as stage 3 of the cancer diagnosis projects roughly 16% of survival and unfortunately decreases to roughly 7% in the beginning of stage 4.
If you or someone you know has been affected by mesothelioma in the state of Pennsylvania, please fill out this form for a free consultation or call 1 (800) 505-6000 for legal help.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the odds of getting mesothelioma after asbestos exposure?
While asbestos exposure is the primary cause of mesothelioma, most people exposed to asbestos — even in large amounts — do not develop the disease. Mesothelioma is rare, with approximately 3,000 new cases per year in the U.S. The odds depend on several factors: the duration and intensity of exposure, the type of asbestos, genetic factors (particularly BAP1 mutations), and individual immune response. There is no safe threshold of exposure — but developing mesothelioma is not inevitable even with significant exposure.
What factors increase the odds of developing mesothelioma?
Several factors influence mesothelioma risk:
- Primary (direct) asbestos exposure — accounts for up to 80% of all mesothelioma cases. Working directly with or inhaling asbestos fibers carries the highest risk.
- Secondary exposure — inhaling fibers from a family member’s contaminated work clothes, skin, or hair
- Duration and intensity — longer and heavier exposure generally increases risk, though even brief exposures have led to diagnoses
- BAP1 gene mutation — an inherited genetic predisposition that increases susceptibility to mesothelioma
- Radiation exposure — a less common but recognized risk factor
Which type of mesothelioma is most common?
Pleural mesothelioma (affecting the lining of the lungs) is by far the most common, accounting for 75–80% of all diagnoses. This is because asbestos exposure most commonly occurs through inhalation, so the lungs and surrounding tissue are the first point of contact. Peritoneal mesothelioma (abdomen) accounts for approximately 15%, while pericardial (heart) and testicular mesothelioma each account for less than 1%.
What are the survival rates for mesothelioma?
Survival rates depend heavily on the stage at diagnosis:
- Early stage (stages 1–2) — five-year survival rate of approximately 24%
- Stage 3 — approximately 16%
- Stage 4 — approximately 7%
- Overall (all stages) — approximately 12%
The low overall rate reflects the fact that mesothelioma is usually diagnosed at a late stage because symptoms don’t appear for 30 to 40 years after exposure. This is why early detection and awareness of exposure history are so critical.
Which occupations have the highest odds of asbestos exposure?
The CDC warns that several occupations carry elevated risk, including:
- Auto mechanics
- Building inspectors
- Carpenters
- Demolition workers
- Drywallers
- Electricians
- Ironworkers
Men have historically been diagnosed at higher rates because these are predominantly male-dominated industries. However, women are also at significant risk through secondary and environmental exposure pathways.
Why does mesothelioma take so long to develop?
Mesothelioma has a latency period of 30 to 40 years — and in some cases even longer. After asbestos fibers are inhaled or ingested, they become embedded in tissue and cause slow, progressive cellular damage over decades. The body’s immune system attempts to isolate the fibers but cannot destroy them, leading to chronic inflammation that eventually triggers cancerous changes. This is why someone exposed to asbestos in the 1970s or 1980s may only now be developing symptoms.
What should I do if I was exposed to asbestos?
If you have a known history of asbestos exposure, inform your doctor and ask about monitoring options — including regular imaging and blood tests for mesothelioma biomarkers. Even if you are not currently experiencing symptoms, proactive screening can lead to earlier detection, which significantly improves treatment options and survival rates. If you or a loved one has been diagnosed with mesothelioma, call (800) 505-6000 or fill out our contact form for a free consultation.
